A recent report estimates the cost of the Golden Dome missile defense program could reach anywhere from $252 billion to a staggering $3.6 trillion over two decades. This massive range reflects the numerous unanswered questions surrounding the initiative, eight months after President Trump announced it. The study, published by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), emphasizes the critical influence of political decisions on the program's ultimate cost.
“In the end, Golden Dome’s cost will not be determined by fiscal constraints or technical capabilities, but by political choices: which risks leaders are willing to mitigate, which they are willing to trade, and which they are prepared to accept,” writes Todd Harrison, AEI senior fellow and author of the report. “As long as requirements remain undefined, Golden Dome can cost as much or as little as policymakers are willing to spend.”
The report examines various options, from drone defenses to space-based interceptors, creating six example architectures. Even small changes in objectives significantly impact costs, with space-based interceptors being the most expensive factor. Harrison argues that Trump’s previously mentioned $175 billion figure would only fund a limited system, insufficient to counter the arsenals of China and Russia.
President Trump announced Golden Dome in January via an executive order. The order mandates the development of a comprehensive homeland air and missile defense system to protect against various threats. The envisioned system will integrate current and future capabilities across multiple layers.
The cost variations are dramatic, influenced by geographic coverage (continental US only, or including territories and allies?), threat scope (small rogue attacks or large-scale assaults?), and technical requirements (effectiveness, resilience, acceptable risk levels). The study cites Defense Intelligence Agency estimates of over 16,000 missiles from China and Russia by 2035, though Harrison notes that such long-term projections are debatable. The analysis concludes that the ultimate cost of Golden Dome will depend on political risk tolerance, rather than technical limitations. “How much homeland air and missile defense is enough?” Harrison asks. “No architecture can deliver total protection, and Golden Dome’s cost depends on its ambition.”