The impact of potential US policy shifts under a Trump presidency on international trade, particularly affecting television program production and distribution, was a key discussion point at NEM Dubrovnik. Guy Bisson, Research Director and co-founder of Ampere Analysis, highlighted a significant decrease in global first-run series orders over the past two years. “The new peak is 75% peak TV. And we’re not going back to where we were, I’m afraid,” he stated, noting a decline in content spending.
Simultaneously, a shift in US production is occurring, with companies increasingly looking to international markets. “Significant business was flowing through from US companies to international markets… Central Europe was also a beneficiary. Increasingly, in the era of Trump, this is referred to often as runaway production, especially for content that could be made in the US but is made in international markets for cost reasons.” Bisson emphasized the dependence of US companies on international markets, citing figures showing a substantial portion of box office, transactional, and subscription revenue originates outside the US. He also highlighted the significant role of streaming services, noting a shift in the proportion of content produced outside the US.
Bisson noted that in the recent pullback (2023-2024), the Middle East and Africa suffered, while the cost-effectiveness of Central European production made it a major beneficiary. He warned that if policies restricting international production were implemented, major European markets (UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Turkey, and Scandinavia) stand to lose significantly, as they’ve benefited greatly from this “runaway production.”