China is poised for a significant leap in its space launch capabilities in 2025, driven by the introduction of new Long March rockets and commercially developed launch vehicles. These launchers, designed for reusability or adapted for cost-effective regular flights, will contend for contracts related to megaconstellation projects like Thousand Sails and Guowang, space station cargo missions, and commercial endeavors. This will dramatically enhance China’s overall space access and launch rate.
One of the initial launches will be the Long March 8A, an advanced version of the Long March 8 featuring a more powerful second stage. This upgrade boosts its payload capacity to 7,000 kg to a 700-kilometer sun-synchronous orbit (SSO), utilizing a larger 5.2-meter-diameter payload fairing. Developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) under CASC, its launch is potentially scheduled for as early as January 19th, according to marine navigation warnings. CASC has also established new facilities to ramp up production of YF-100 engines crucial for the Long March 8 and other kerosene-fueled Long March rockets.
The Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST) is preparing a vertical takeoff, vertical landing (VTVL) test for its Long March 12A rocket, planned for January 14-16 near Haiyang. This reusable rocket, unlike its expendable predecessor, might utilize commercially developed methane-liquid oxygen engines, aiming for a simulated first-stage flight to approximately 75 kilometers.
Landspace, a prominent Chinese commercial launch firm, targets the first orbital launch of its Zhuque-3 (Vermilion Bird-3) in 2025, following 2024 VTVL tests. This two-stage rocket, boasting a 4.5-meter diameter and 76.6-meter length, will have a liftoff mass of around 660 tons and nine Tianque-12B engines. Its payload capacity to LEO will be 21,000 kg (expendable) or up to 18,300 kg (with first-stage recovery). Landspace announced the completion of its nine Tianque-12 engines on January 1st.
Space Pioneer, aiming for a 2025 launch of its Tianlong-3 after a setback in 2024, benchmarks its rocket against SpaceX Falcon 9. Tianlong-3, with a 3.8-meter diameter and 590-ton takeoff mass, will be capable of carrying 17,000 kg to LEO or 14,000 kg to 500-km SSO.
Galactic Energy plans the first launch of its Pallas-1 kerosene-liquid oxygen rocket, adaptable for first-stage reusability, with a planned payload capacity of 8,000 kg to a 200-kilometer LEO. A three-core-stage variant will reportedly carry up to 30,000 kg to LEO. The company announced the final assembly of the first Pallas-1 rocket on December 31st.
Deep Blue Aerospace intends to launch its Nebula-1 rocket, aiming for recovery and reuse. This two-stage launcher will carry 2,000 kilograms to LEO, with an improved version capable of lifting 8,000 kilograms.
CAS Space plans its first kerosene-liquid oxygen rocket launch in the second half of 2025 with Kinetica-2, capable of carrying 12,000 kg to LEO or 7,800 kg to SSO. The rocket will eventually be made reusable. Kinetica-2 is selected to launch the Qingzhou cargo spacecraft.
iSpace, after setbacks with Hyperbola-1, plans to launch its Hyperbola-3 kerolox rocket in 2025, aiming for 8,500 kg to LEO with future reusability.
The competition among these companies will likely result in China gaining new, affordable, and reusable launch systems, boosting its space access and potentially attracting international payloads.