SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk has urged NASA to deorbit the International Space Station “as soon as possible,” ideally within the next two years, to prioritize Mars missions. This unexpected announcement, made on X on February 20, threatens to complicate relations between Musk, a close Trump administration advisor, and NASA, along with the broader space industry. “It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the @Space_Station,” Musk tweeted. “It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility. Let’s go to Mars.” When pressed for clarification on a timeline before NASA's planned 2030 decommissioning, Musk specified two years. “The decision is up to the President, but my recommendation is as soon as possible. I recommend 2 years from now,” he posted.
Musk's statement, coupled with his influence within the administration, could disrupt NASA's ISS transition plans. These plans involve operating the station until 2030, anticipating at least one operational commercial space station to ensure continuity of research and development. In June 2024, NASA awarded SpaceX an $843 million contract for the United States Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), a Dragon-based spacecraft to manage the station's controlled deorbit. The USDV's planned launch is between August 2028 and May 2029. It remains unclear if development can be expedited to meet Musk's 2027 target.
An early deorbit would also impact collaborations with other companies and organizations involved in the ISS and its commercial successors, as well as international partners committed to the station until 2030 (except Russia, planning until 2028). A significant concern is the potential gap in continuous U.S. human presence in low Earth orbit, contradicting NASA's December LEO Microgravity Strategy aiming for “continuous heartbeat” in orbit. NASA previously envisioned an overlap between the ISS and commercial stations for a smooth transition. Doubts exist regarding the readiness of commercial stations by 2030, forcing NASA to choose between a gap or extending the ISS. However, developers like Vast and Axiom express confidence in launching crewed stations before 2030.
Key members of Congress recently reiterated their support for maintaining a continuous U.S. presence in LEO. “Abandoning LEO in some well-intentioned but misguided effort to focus only on the moon or only on Mars would only allow China to fill that void, driving a wedge between the United States and our partners,” stated Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Senate Commerce Committee chairman, at the Commercial Space Conference on February 12. “That’s a path that we’re not going to take.” He advocated for continued ISS operation until commercial alternatives are ready. Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas), chairman of the House Science Committee, echoed these sentiments, emphasizing careful consideration of both the ISS and commercial platforms in achieving U.S. objectives in low Earth orbit. “The International Space Station is a technological marvel without any question, and it served us well for many decades,” he said. “We must give careful thought to how both the International Space Station and upcoming commercial platforms will play a role in accomplishes the United States’ objectives in low Earth orbit.”
The reasons behind Musk's call for early deorbiting remain uncertain. While SpaceX is a major ISS operator, providing astronaut transportation and cargo delivery, Musk's comments followed a dispute with ESA astronaut Andreas Mogensen. Mogensen criticized Musk for claims about NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams being left on the ISS for political reasons. “What a lie,” Mogensen wrote. “Idiot,” Musk responded, with further harsh language. Musk claimed SpaceX offered an earlier return for Williams and Wilmore, a claim unsubstantiated by NASA or the Biden administration.