Arianespace is evaluating strategies to enhance the launch frequency of the Ariane 6 rocket, potentially exceeding 10 launches annually, contingent on sufficient government and commercial demand. During the World Space Business Week conference on Sept. 16, Arianespace CEO David Cavaillolès revealed the company's exploration of scenarios where burgeoning satellite constellations could necessitate increased launch capacity. “Now, we are reopening the case” for increased capacity, he stated, following the company’s initial focus on Ariane 6’s operational launch.
One scenario assumes consistent demand outside of established systems like SpaceX’s Starlink and Chinese constellations. However, Cavaillolès noted projections for “large institutional programs,” such as the European IRIS² constellation, spurred by recent geopolitical shifts. Coupled with new commercial ventures like Amazon’s Project Kuiper, this could significantly alter the market landscape. “If Kuiper — and I wish them to succeed — continues to accelerate, and at the same time you have some big institutional projects, then the market will really, really change, and in this case we should prepare ourselves to increase the cadence,” he explained.
Arianespace is actively investigating methods to overcome bottlenecks impacting Ariane 6 launch rates. These include scaling up production of the rocket's solid rocket boosters and constructing a second launch pad in French Guiana. While Cavaillolès refrained from providing specifics, he acknowledged that a second pad “would take years and years” to build and would be expensive. “There are some blockers that are simpler to remove,” he mentioned, citing infrastructure improvements at the launch site to streamline campaign timelines.
Such investments necessitate prompt decisions, even if the need for additional Ariane 6 launches might not fully materialize until the latter part of this decade. “If we think that, around 2029 or 2030, we need a higher cadence, then it is next year or the year after next that we should make the decision,” he stated. The final decision, he indicated, will largely depend on the emergence of another substantial constellation project within the next few years. “If tomorrow it’s confirmed that there is another customer wanting us and being ready to commit with us on a certain number of launchers per year, then we would have a sound basis to think seriously about those investments,” he said. “For the moment, I think it is a bit too early.”
Currently, Arianespace is working towards its current target of 10 annual launches to fulfill customer demands, including those from Amazon. Two Ariane 6 launches have been completed this year, with two more anticipated before year-end. Although this falls short of initial projections, Cavaillolès highlighted that four launches would still be “good news,” given predictions of only two or three. For 2026, he anticipates a near doubling of that rate. “For the moment, we are really well positioned,” he asserted. Achieving eight launches next year, he claimed, would represent the fastest ramp-up for a heavy-lift rocket.
He acknowledged customer concerns. Amazon Project Kuiper executive Ricky Freeman, in a Sept. 15 presentation, identified launch availability as his most significant hurdle, citing delays at Arianespace, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance. Kuiper is Arianespace’s largest Ariane 6 customer. “They want us to execute the contract and to do it as quick as possible,” Cavaillolès said. “Anything we can do to anticipate some launches would be welcomed by them.” This could include prioritizing Kuiper during scheduling gaps caused by other customers' delays. “Kuiper is absolutely aware of what our manifest looks like,” he confirmed. “In the short term we have limited room to maneuver.” “Whatever we can do to accelerate Kuiper, we will do it,” he added. “Their message is that they want us to go fast, and the faster the better.”