All eyes are on Germany as the European Space Agency's (ESA) member states gear up to decide on the agency's budget for the next three years. The upcoming ministerial conference scheduled for November 26-27 in Bremen will be crucial in determining the financial support for ESA's ambitious programs. At the previous conference in 2022, Germany was the largest contributor, providing around 3.5 billion euros. This time, with ESA seeking about 22 billion euros overall, industry experts anticipate a significant increase from Germany.

Speculation at the Space Tech Expo Europe conference this week suggests Germany could offer between 4.5 and 5 billion euros, with some hoping for even more. Kristina Vogt, senator for economy, ports and transformation for Bremen, emphasized the need for Europe to act independently and strategically in space, urging Germany to strengthen its leadership in key programs like Ariane, Artemis, and Earth observation. "Europe, in my opinion, must show that it can act independently and strategically, aligning its space technologies with the needs of its citizens, its economy and its security," said Vogt.

Marco Fuchs, chief executive of OHB, echoed this sentiment, noting the high expectations for Germany's commitments. He was optimistic about ESA reaching its 22 billion euro target, highlighting the new German government's dedicated ministry of space. "Obviously, with Germany being the host, the expectation is high that Germany makes significant commitments," said Fuchs. He also suggested that the German military might contribute to ESA funding, a departure from past practices.

The German government's announcement of a 35 billion euro investment in military space over five years has fueled further speculation. Some expect this funding to support German launch companies like Isar Aerospace and Rocket Factory Augsburg. However, the European Resilience from Space (ERS) program, focused on defense-related Earth observation, communications, and navigation, may present a challenge. According to sources, "Germany is not yet very much fond" of ERS.

Pierre Godart, chief executive of ArianeGroup’s German business unit, noted Germany's evolving position in space, which is positive news for the German industry. Marcus Pleyer, state secretary of Germany’s Ministry of Research, Technology and Space, affirmed Germany's commitment to ESA, stating, "Germany is and remains a strong and reliable partner of ESA."

Canada has already pledged an increase of $528.5 million Canadian to ESA programs. Mélanie Joly, Canada’s industry minister, claimed this increase represents a tenfold increase over previous contributions. Josef Aschbacher, ESA’s director general, hailed Canada’s contribution as "major news".

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the final numbers, Fuchs remains optimistic about the outcome of the ministerial conference. "I believe the ministerial conference will be a success, and not only because always afterwards you declare it a success," he concluded. The conference's outcome will be a key indicator of Europe's space ambitions.