New analysis suggests that the UK's ambitious plan to transition to an all-IP television market in the 2030s could inadvertently cut off millions of people from accessing TV services altogether. This warning challenges the government's current assumptions regarding broadband adoption rates and affordability across the country.
According to a report seen by The Observer newspaper, independent analyst Mathew Horsman warns that as many as 5.4 million UK households, representing approximately 10 million individuals, might be left without access to live television if the UK discontinues all broadcast TV transmitters and fully embraces internet delivery. This projection stands in stark contrast to the modelling used by the government in planning the future of Freeview.
The Department for Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) is expected to make a crucial decision in 2026 regarding when to begin the process of winding down the UK’s terrestrial TV network. This decision will be significantly influenced by research conducted by Exeter University, which forecasts that by 2040, 95% of UK homes will primarily watch TV over broadband. They estimate that only 1.4 million people, largely older viewers from lower-income backgrounds, will continue to rely on terrestrial broadcasting.
Horsman’s analysis presents a different perspective. He argues that the shift towards IP is progressing faster in political and regulatory circles than the actual capabilities of many households. He emphasizes that digital exclusion will remain a significant structural barrier well into the 2030s and beyond. The current timetable under consideration in Whitehall suggests a complete terrestrial switch-off by 2035. This timeline aligns with the expiry of Channel 4, Channel 5, and ITV’s existing public service broadcasting licences in 2034, which is also the year their distribution contracts with Arqiva – the operator of the UK’s broadcast transmitter network – are set to conclude.
The BBC’s current transmission contract with Arqiva is valid until 2030, and its next Charter review with DCMS will commence in 2027. Broadband TV News points out that while public service broadcasters are bound by their licenses, private channels have the option to withdraw from terrestrial broadcasting independently. Regulator Ofcom has advocated for a prompt decision, informing the government in July that clarity by 2026 is crucial "to manage an inclusive transition."
However, Horsman’s data suggests that setting a fixed switch-off date without a comprehensive nationwide affordability and inclusion strategy could lead to a disruptive transition, potentially leaving millions of viewers, primarily those with lower incomes and older individuals, without access to free-to-air TV services.