The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), a NASA oversight body, voiced serious apprehensions regarding the safety of the International Space Station (ISS). During an April 17 meeting, members highlighted escalating risks as the station's retirement in 2030 draws closer. Rich Williams, a panel member, stated, “The ISS has entered the riskiest period of its existence,” emphasizing “increasing risks” to the orbiting laboratory.
Among the long-standing issues is the persistent problem of leaks in the Zvezda module's PrK vestibule. Experts from NASA and Roscosmos are still investigating these cracks, with no definitive solution in sight. To mitigate risks, procedures like limiting vestibule repressurization have been implemented, as confirmed by Williams. He added, “The panel has considered this one of our highest concerns.”
Another significant concern is the lack of a fully developed emergency deorbit plan. Williams stressed the heightened public risk if the ISS were to deorbit before the arrival of the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), stating, “If there is a deorbit of the ISS before the USDV is delivered, the risk to the public from ISS breakup debris will increase by orders of magnitude.”
Further compounding the situation are issues such as dwindling spare parts for life support systems and delays in cargo resupply missions. These delays include the postponement of Sierra Space's Dream Chaser vehicle launch and the cancellation of Northrop Grumman's NG-22 Cygnus mission due to shipping damage. Williams noted, “Overarching all of these risks is a large ISS budget shortfall.” He added, “All of these risks are actually a derivative of this budget shortfall and collectively contribute to potential compromise of the low Earth orbit transition plan.”
The ASAP's 2024 annual report underscored the potential strain on ISS operations from the costs of building the USDV and supporting commercial space stations. The report stated, “The Panel has grave concerns, however, that if the necessary funds for both the USDV and the supporting launch infrastructure (over $1B in total) comes solely from the existing ISS budget, this will unduly strain NASA’s ability to safely perform normal and contingency ISS on-orbit operations.”
Williams concluded by emphasizing the importance of sustained funding, stating, “As programs near final phases, it is tempting to assume less resources will need to be available. For the ISS, it is critical to maintain adequate budget and resources until the vehicle is safely reentered.” He also added, “The panel appreciates the demonstrated operational excellence of the ISS program, but remains deeply concerned about the increasing and cascading risk attending the program over the next several years.”