The U.S. broadcast industry is projected to see an increase in total advertising revenue in 2024, despite continued competition from digital platforms, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence’s “Radio & TV Annual Outlook.”
The report forecasts that broadcast station advertising revenue will reach $36.19 billion, a 9.3% rise from 2023. This growth is largely driven by record political ad spending expected during the upcoming presidential election year.
Television stations are projected to benefit the most, with total TV ad revenues expected to grow by 14.1%, reaching $24.95 billion. A significant portion of this increase—$4.09 billion—will come from political ads. However, when excluding political spending, TV station core ad revenues (combining local and national ads) are expected to decline slightly, by 0.3%, to $17.58 billion.
Local advertising is expected to remain a bright spot for broadcasters, as stations continue to leverage their community ties. While national spot advertising for TV is expected to decline by 4.5%, local spot revenue is projected to grow 1.5%. Digital ad revenue for TV stations is also expected to climb 3.0% in 2024.
Looking further ahead, S&P’s report paints a more uncertain picture. Over the next five years, TV station ad revenues are projected to decline at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1%. The report forecasts that revenues will hit a high of $25.57 billion in 2028 before falling 12.5% in 2029, a nonelection year.
Radio stations face a tougher environment.
Total radio advertising revenue is expected to fall 3.7% in 2024 to $11.24 billion. Radio’s national spot market is projected to decline further, with a 5% annual decrease over the next five years, while local spot ads are expected to drop 3.6% annually.
One area of growth for radio is digital advertising. S&P projects radio’s digital revenue will grow 5.9% annually through 2029, offsetting some of the declines in traditional broadcast revenue. Justin Nielson, S&P’s media analyst, says this shift reflects the industry’s evolving focus, with companies like iHeartMedia capitalizing on digital audio and podcasting. “Radio still has the audience,” Nielson said, but monetizing that audience has become a challenge as advertisers increasingly shift to digital platforms. He added that podcasting will likely remain a secondary revenue source for radio stations, although it is growing.
Local advertising has long been a strength for radio, which traditionally draws 80% of its revenue from local sales. S&P’s report suggests that local broadcast sales continue to outperform national sales, with professional services, telecom, and pharmaceutical categories leading the way. Conversely, sectors like automotive and retail have been weaker, impacted by inflation and high interest rates that have dampened consumer spending.
S&P’s outlook for local television is similarly mixed.
While local spot revenue is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024, the national spot market will continue to face challenges. Despite these struggles, broadcasters are expected to benefit from political and sports programming, which remain key drivers for ad revenue in the coming years.
As the digital ad market continues to expand, the role of local broadcasting in maintaining a connection with communities may help stations navigate the shifting landscape, even as national advertising dollars continue to move online.