The space industry is dominated by SpaceX, creating a significant hurdle for new entrants. Investors and startup executives are advising against direct competition, suggesting instead a focus on unique approaches. Meagan Crawford, founder and managing partner of SpaceFund, stated, “No offense to the 183 launch companies that I’m tracking on my website, but that’s not the future of the space industry. The question is, what’s being launched?”
Concerns are amplified by Elon Musk's prominent role in the Trump administration. Christopher Thein, chief executive of EOI Space, noted, “If I was an investor, I would be wary of any company that was going to be competitive with SpaceX, because it seems like there is a leaning that way for this administration.” However, Crawford added, “Nobody’s going to be competitive with SpaceX anyway.”
The panel emphasized the risks of mimicking SpaceX's vertical integration strategy. Noel Rimalovski, managing director of GH Partners, warned, “If you are going for full vertical integration, you are basically consolidating all of the problems of the industry in your own house.” He questioned the feasibility, asking, “do you have infinite access to capital?” Ari Juster, chief operating officer of Starfish Space, agreed, highlighting the substantial capital requirements.
Opportunities exist in adjacent markets. Juster cited Stoke Space's successful $260 million Series C round for its reusable launch vehicle, targeting a different market segment than SpaceX. This reflects a broader upswing in investment, particularly for larger rounds, following a period of challenging terms and down rounds.
Greg Smirin, president of Muon Space, described their successful Series B round, noting the industry's evolving understanding and the lingering impact of SPAC mergers. He stated, “Our experience is that SPACs don’t help because it encourages companies that are pretty early on in their life to go public.”
While Rocket Lab's Peter Beck viewed the earlier SPAC boom positively, the panel had mixed opinions. Rimalovski commented, “It’s always a bad thing when folks take in a ton of money — and a lot of times SPACs were raising hundreds of millions of dollars — and they don’t have much to show for it and investors got burned. Investors need to have a return on their capital to want to reinvest in the industry.”
Crawford acknowledged the SPAC boom's role in raising investor awareness and interest, leading to space-focused ETFs and stock discussion groups. She highlighted Voyager Technologies' upcoming IPO as a positive development, potentially encouraging other established companies to follow a more traditional public offering route and reinvigorating the investment cycle.