The growing congestion in Earth's orbit presents significant challenges, mirroring those faced by the aviation and maritime industries. A panel of space technology executives at the SmallSat Symposium in Silicon Valley highlighted this issue, noting the exponential growth of satellites in orbit. “We have 10,000-plus satellites right now, projected to double every 22 months,” said Ahsun Murad, CEO of Optimal Satcom, predicting “about 100,000 satellites in seven years.”
Rajeev Gopal, vice president of advanced defense programs at Hughes Network Systems, drew parallels to the maritime and aviation sectors, stating, “There are about 100,000 ships in the oceans, and somewhere around 30,000 to 40,000 commercial aircraft in service globally. “There are unfortunate accidents here and there, but most of the time they work,” Gopal said, “but it also took us decades and centuries to evolve these rules.” This underscores the need for establishing robust regulatory frameworks for space.
Tim Lynch, senior vice president and chief strategy officer for Frontgrade, suggested learning from the universal sensors used in shipping and aviation. “I’m not saying that’s a solution but it’s certainly something to look at … we need to mature similar to that in space,” he said. While ground-based radar systems like those operated by LeoLabs provide tracking capabilities, Lynch emphasized the necessity of automation and satellite-to-satellite communication for effective maneuverability, comparing it to car blinkers.
Louis Christen, senior director at Northrop Grumman Space Systems, acknowledged the current reliance on the U.S. Space Force’s 19th Space Defense Squadron for collision avoidance. “But that job is going to get tougher and tougher as things get more dense,” Christen noted, stressing the importance of autonomy in managing increasingly crowded orbits.
Beyond collisions, the increase in space debris, estimated at 13,000 cataloged pieces in low Earth orbit (LEO) plus countless smaller fragments, poses a significant threat. Christen compared the thrust capabilities of LEO satellites to “a piece of paper resting on a hand,” highlighting the limitations in quickly evading collisions. Dan Ceperley, founder and chief operating officer of LeoLabs, pointed out that the average closing speed of objects in LEO is 12 kilometers per second, making the situation considerably more dynamic than in aviation or maritime.
The panel also addressed the rising threat of hostile actions in space, with Ceperley mentioning the observed “nesting doll” deployment of satellites, enabling rapid expansion of orbital assets and making continuous monitoring crucial. “At the moment, there’s large gaps in the coverage of space domain awareness systems,” he said, citing an instance of a “zombie satellite” unexpectedly reactivating and performing proximity operations near Russian satellites.
Cybersecurity emerged as a major concern, with Lynch humorously noting, “You can have a kid in a Starbucks and laptop start attacking your satellite.” While technological advancements present new vulnerabilities, they also offer tools for enhancing autonomous protections against both cyber and physical threats.