Frank Kendall, the outgoing Air Force Secretary, issued a grave warning to Congress: the United States is at risk of falling behind China in the military space race unless it drastically overhauls its space capabilities. This warning comes in a report submitted to Congress and discussed at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Kendall's report lays out an ambitious plan for the Air Force and Space Force, advocating for a significant expansion of space-based capabilities by 2050 to counter threats from China and Russia. He stated, “We’re going to need a much bigger, much more powerful Space Force,” comparing the necessary evolution to that of “from the equivalent of a merchant marine to a navy.”
The report, titled “The Department of the Air Force in 2050,” highlights the need for substantial growth within the Space Force (currently around 10,000 personnel), coupled with massive investment in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and modernized space-based sensor networks. It projects that “Space will be recognized as the decisive domain for almost all military operations,” warning of adversaries possessing significant terrestrial and space-based weapons capable of attacking US space systems by 2050.
Kendall emphasized the shift towards “machine speed, not human speed” in future conflicts, requiring extensive AI integration for real-time data analysis and intelligence. He said, “The future of war is highly automated, highly autonomous,” adding, “The ability of the entire joint force to project power depends upon our success in space.”
The report advocates for significant investment in missile warning and tracking, nuclear detonation detection, real-time targeting, secure communications, battle management, and protection against enemy space systems. While acknowledging progress since the Space Force's inception, Kendall stressed the urgency of countering China’s militarization of space, aimed at targeting US forces and denying US space capabilities.
The report builds upon previous strategic planning but acknowledges its broad assumptions, stating that precise quantitative predictions on force structure through 2050 are unrealistic. It also emphasizes the necessity of stronger private-sector partnerships to leverage commercial and dual-use innovations in space technology.
This warning coincides with China’s rapid advancement in military space capabilities, including sophisticated satellite systems and anti-satellite weapons, raising concerns about the vulnerability of American space assets.