The U.S. Space Force anticipates 11 national security launches utilizing United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Vulcan rocket in 2025, dependent on the rocket's final certification. This projection, revealed by officials on January 28th, also encompasses seven missions using SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, as stated by Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, head of the Space Force’s Assured Access to Space office, at the Space Mobility Conference.
This ambitious plan aims to compensate for delays; only five missions were completed in 2024. The Vulcan rocket, which debuted last year following significant schedule setbacks, is a pivotal component of the NSSL Phase 2 program. ULA was chosen in 2020 as the primary launch provider for national security missions through 2027. However, the rocket is still undergoing review, with certification expected in late February following its second demonstration flight in October 2024.
While ULA aims to increase Vulcan flights for military missions, SpaceX retains its dominance in the commercial launch market. SpaceX even absorbed extra national security launches in 2024 initially planned for Vulcan, highlighting the Space Force’s growing reliance on SpaceX’s proven Falcon rockets for maintaining crucial military space access. Col. Jim Horne, overseeing launch execution for the Space Force, confirmed that Vulcan’s second test flight was successful despite a solid rocket booster anomaly. This is under investigation but shouldn't impede certification. Horne emphasized that certification isn't solely dependent on two flights; it’s a thorough assessment of engineering, manufacturing, quality control, and maintenance processes. He suggested Vulcan’s first NSSL mission might launch this spring.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket successfully completed its first flight on January 16th, reaching its target orbit. Although the first stage wasn't recovered as planned, Panzenhagen clarified that booster recovery isn't mandatory for NSSL eligibility. “For our national security space launch missions, the primary measure of success is delivering the payload to its destination,” she stated. This positions New Glenn to compete for Lane 1 of the NSSL Phase 3 program (less complex missions). A second successful flight will likely be needed for qualification for more demanding Lane 2 missions. Blue Origin's certification process remains undisclosed, allowing flexibility in balancing demonstration launches and data reviews. ULA publicly stated that two successful flights are needed to certify Vulcan.