The absence of historical data on space warfare presents a unique challenge for the U.S. Space Force. Col. Lincoln Bonner, deputy director of the Space Force’s Space Futures Command Task Force, highlighted the critical need for simulating potential adversary actions in space, stating that it's “absolutely essential” due to the lack of historical conflicts to study. He emphasized that “Fortunately, we’ve never engaged in space warfare, and what space warfare will look like is largely a matter of imagination. And that presents its own tremendous challenge.”
The Space Force is addressing the rapid pace of space technology development and emerging threats from adversaries such as China. A key component of the proposed Space Futures Command will be a warfare analysis center leveraging wargaming and artificial intelligence to guide investments in next-generation technologies. Col. Bonner stressed the importance of wargaming and field experimentation to reduce uncertainty in this new domain, saying, “The biggest challenge when it comes to counter-space operations and space warfare is that we are in this arena where we are highly dependent on our ability to imagine what the outcomes are…that really does make wargaming and field experimentation absolutely critical to our success, because that is an opportunity to reduce the uncertainty.”
Col. Bonner also noted that technological superiority alone isn't sufficient for success. “Technological success is necessary and critical, but it is unlikely to be sufficient,” he said. The focus should be on system integration and operation, an area the proposed Space Futures Command aims to analyze. He posed the question, “In a world in which you’re facing an opponent that can produce the kinds of technology that are similar to what we can produce, and can produce them in numbers, how can you keep pace? How can you stay ahead?” He emphasized that enduring advantages will come from employing technologies in concert, achieving a synergy where “the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.”
However, the proposed Futures Command has faced criticism. Todd Harrison, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that creating a new command might hinder innovation. He criticizes the Space Force's current organizational structure, with separate commands for acquisition, operations, and potentially future concepts, writing that this approach “separates personnel in different chains of command based on their function rather than the mission they support, and this limits their ability to interact and solve cross-functional problems within each mission area.” Harrison advocates for combining existing commands into a structure organized around mission areas to improve innovation and accelerate feedback loops.