GroupM's latest forecast predicts a historic year for the global advertising industry, with total revenue expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2024. This represents a significant 9.5% increase from the previous year, exceeding the June estimate of 7.8% growth. The report projects further growth to $1.1 trillion by 2025, a 7.7% increase.
The report also highlights the increasing concentration of market power. Five companies—Google, Meta, ByteDance (TikTok), Amazon, and Alibaba—are predicted to control over half of global advertising revenue. Pure digital advertising continues to be the primary driver of growth, with a projected 12.4% increase in 2024 and a projected share of nearly 73% of total ad revenue by 2025.
Within the digital sphere, retail media is rapidly emerging. Retail media revenue is expected to surpass global TV advertising revenue for the first time in 2025, reaching $177.1 billion. The television advertising landscape presents a more nuanced picture. While global TV ad revenue (including linear and streaming) will see modest growth (2.4% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029), linear TV revenue is projected to decline by 3.4% in 2025. Conversely, streaming TV advertising is poised for significant expansion, with a projected growth rate of 19.3%, surpassing linear TV ad revenue by 2029.
This shift is primarily driven by evolving consumer viewing habits and the decline of traditional cable packages. Although services such as Netflix, Disney+, and Max have introduced ad-supported tiers, lower ad loads and a substantial number of subscribers choosing ad-free options limit the immediate impact on ad revenue. Despite the milestone of exceeding $1 trillion in revenue, the uneven distribution of growth reveals a stark contrast between thriving digital channels and struggling traditional media, particularly linear TV and print. GroupM's findings underscore the ongoing transformation of the advertising industry, forcing advertisers to navigate a fragmented media landscape and adapt to evolving consumer behavior.