Following the recent Shenzhou-20 incident, China could be without emergency launch capability to the Tiangong space station for several months. This situation leaves no rapid-response option for any new crisis. The Shenzhou-22 spacecraft, launched on November 25 (UTC), was sent to Tiangong as a lifeboat for the Shenzhou-21 astronauts. It was on standby at Jiuquan spaceport with its Long March 2F rocket, initially slated for a crewed mission around April–May 2026.

The contingency was triggered after damage was discovered to a portview window of Shenzhou-20, docked at Tiangong, on November 5. With Shenzhou-20 deemed unsafe, the three astronauts returned to Earth on November 14 aboard Shenzhou-21. This left the Shenzhou-21 crew without a lifeboat for a period until the arrival of Shenzhou-22.

China’s human spaceflight agency, CMSEO, operates a “one launch, one on standby” protocol. With the backup Shenzhou-22 launched, China faces a gap in emergency capabilities until Shenzhou-23 can be delivered and readied at Jiuquan. A recent report by state media China Central Television (CCTV) revealed that Shenzhou-23 was initially planned to be completed in March 2026.

According to CCTV, Shenzhou-23 is now expected to be completed two months ahead of schedule, potentially arriving at Jiuquan sometime in January. The spacecraft and its Long March 2F rocket would then need assembly and testing to reestablish the “one launch, one on standby” situation.

Meanwhile, the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft will make an uncrewed return to Earth, according to Ji Qiming, a spokesperson with CMSEO. The crack to the portview window was found to be over 10 millimeters in size. “From one corner, it looks like it has been pierced through. But as the spaceship is still in orbit, we can’t see it with our own eyes. We may be able to observe it more closely after the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft returns,” Jia said.

The Shenzhou-22 spacecraft also carried a “device” for the window. CMSEO announced Dec. 4 that the Shenzhou-21 crew were set to embark on their first extravehicular activity. The spacewalk would provide an opportunity to assess the crack from the outside. The Shenzhou-21 astronauts—commander Zhang Lu and crewmates Zhang Hongzhang and Wu Fei—arrived at Tiangong Oct. 31. They are expected to stay in orbit around six months. The next crew will launch around April-May, flying on the Shenzhou-23 spacecraft.